The Age of Disruption

I am a nerd!  I love learning about technology, I love Star Wars and Star Trek, and I love dreaming about the future!  As a lead learner in a school I also believe it is important for me to have some knowledge about the impact that technology will have on our society, economy, and education systems.  Personally, I think there is great hope in what the future will bring, but time will tell us all how positive it will be or not.  One thing is clear however, change is coming... and that change is coming faster than most people think.

One thing that is hard to do in making predictions about the future, even if it is just 5 and 10 years into the future, is trying to figure out how changing technologies will impact each other.  An example that I have heard cited is about the "smart phone".  Ten years ago, the first iPhone was launched and it was a huge success.  It is credited with being the most widely adopted smartphone ever.  What it could do was amazing!  As Steve Jobs stated in his 2007 presentation, the iPhone was three things in one - an multitouch iPod, a revolutionary mobile phone, and a breakthrough internet communicator!  (All that being said, at that time I had an HTC smartphone that could do all of that as well, just not nearly as well or as user friendly.  For example, after using my phones internet explorer program on the phone, I received a bill for $887 for the month for all of that data that it downloaded as the webpage refreshed every few minutes.)  The iPhone was truly revolutionary because of how it packed hardware with software to make it easy to use and highly productive.  But other than Apple, who was the big winner from this new tech?  The answer looking back 10 years later is Facebook!  The power and the mobility of the iPhone allowed for the rise and dominance of social media (which was just starting to grow).  Facebook is the undisputed KING of social media and frequently buys up anyone who competes with it (Whatsapp, Oculus VR)  Its' annual revenue was reported at 18 billion last year and Facebook has 1.6 Billion monthly active users.  But in 2007 Facebook was an early start up.  (Facebook should get the iPhone a big birthday present!!!)  Where do you generally look at your Facebook feed?  On your phone right?  Me too.

Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, Twitter and all of the other social media tools live on our phones.  They are pervasive and use a variety of strategies to engage us, which makes it really hard to put your phone down.  And think of the negative consequences that have grown during the last 10 years due to our amazing smartphones that go with us everywhere - distracted driving, technology addictions, anxiety, privacy loss, etc.  In fact, teenage depression and anxiety are at all time highs, and many believe the culprit is social media.  Like it or not, good and bad, the last decade has seen some big changes, some of which were hard to predict.

So what technologies are all converging for a potential similar massive change?  Well Facebook has stated that they are all in on Virtual or Augmented Reality.  Facebook was rumoured to start investing in a phone, but they believe phones will only be around for another 10 years or so.  What will replace these amazing devices that we cant live without?  Glasses (smartglasses?  Goggles?) that will augment your reality, where all of the info you currently get in your phone will be projected in your field of view.  Sounds crazy right?  Well, that is what Facebook is "all in" on and they know technology.  Who will be disrupted by this technology?  Smartphones for sure will be phased out or just become the small box you carry around to power your smart-spectacles.  But so will iPads, TVs, and computers because they will also all move onto your lenses.  Even fish tanks may take a hit because when you look at a certain wall in your home, your glasses will show you an exotic Jellyfish tank that looks real (Augmented Reality), as a real one (Reality Prime), and is only 5.99 a month (with no cleaning or dying fish to deal with).  Imagine the possibilities.... check this demo of the Hololens now for sale from Microsoft.

Other converging disruptions are happening in the auto sector.  Electric cars are getting better, cheaper and increasing in sales.  Driverless technology is improving by the month and one car company (Tesla) is hinting that by sometime in 2018, their cars with the right hardware will be able to provide level 5 autonomy for its drivers (that is where you can sit in the back seat and have a nap while the car takes you home from work).  At the same time, solar panels and home battery storage is also getting more efficient and more cost effective.  Currently, the big money makers in the auto sector is in trucks and SUVs, but at some point as these technologies converge, this economic model will be replaced with a new one.  Right now, auto manufacturers are the dominant players, but could that change?

The first and most notable big disruption in the auto sector would be the end of personal car ownership.  The prediction is that people will stop buying cars and just subscribe to a ride sharing autonomous services.  Sounds crazy, but I remember my friend telling me around 2006 not to bother with a BlueRay player because everyone will stream their movies in a few years.  The cable companies still tried to make me rent the movie for $5.99 but Netflix offered a subscription model and today Netflix is producing some of the best content available causing huge shifts in entertainment, even ESPN has had to cut back on jobs due to cancelled subscriptions and revenue loss.  Electric cars have less parts and need less repairs and maintenance, plus level 5 autonomy keeps the cost of a human driver at bay, and smartphones (or our smartglasses) will helps with scheduling our rides.  Its an electric and driverless vehicle future that will be much more safe, cost effective and efficient.  People will wonder how we ever managed to survive driving around in our own cars. The down side however will be the impact of jobs - taxis, truck drivers, dealerships, and big auto companies will face massive challenges.  The Ford Motor Company just changed CEOs again to help deal with this future reality.  The challenge they face is continuing to sell pickups and SUVs as they also prepare for the electric, autonomous future.  General Motors has partnered with Lyft, Chrysler has a partnership with Google, Mercedes has partnered with Uber and Tesla is considered to be ahead of all of them as they are building the cars and the technology all in one slick package (think of the first iPhone).

More than just the auto sector however, will be the energy sector changes.  With solar and battery storage becoming more common place, and lots of mobile electric vehicles to charge, the opportunities in energy could be huge.  The need for more energy will grow (possibly triple) to power all of our devices and we will need renewable ways to make that energy and manage it.  Home battery storage, community solar farms and other possible spinoff industries will grow to meet the demands.  Have a look at this floating Solar Farm in China that just went online - the largest in the world!  The world will likely move away from oil and gas over time, and although this has been talked about lots in the past, when it happens, it may feel very dramatic - kind of like Blockbuster just all of sudden didnt exist due to video streaming services.  One day it was there... then.. gone.  A Stanford researcher is now predicting that all of this disruption could cause the collapse of oil within 8 years.

With all of this potential disruption, what world will our students inherit?  For Kindergarten students starting this September, what will life be like in Alberta when they graduate high school in 2030?  I believe it will be very different from our world today and the jobs available will also be different.  Our students will need skills to manage their technological world, and they will need strategies to be mentally and physically well in that world.  They will need to be adaptable, responsive and collaborative to function in hyper connected communities.  They will need to be creative thinkers and problem solvers too!  Currently, Alberta Education is working on new curriculum and has explicitly listed these skills in their list of 8 competencies.  The top education officials see the future too and know our students will live in a world that is not nearly as knowledge based, but will be focused on skills and abilities.  Here are the competencies for which Alberta Education would like students to be taught and assessed on when the new curriculum is implemented:

• Critical Thinking  
• Problem Solving  
• Managing Information  
• Creativity and Innovation
• Communication
• Collaboration  
• Cultural and Global Citizenship  
• Personal Growth and Well-being.

When you think about where all of this is headed, it is important to ask, "what can our schools do to help ensure our students are ready to fully participate and positively impact their world?   In the second part of this article, I will share what schools in Alberta are already doing to prepare our students for life beyond their education.

Stay Tuned for more!

Joe Dumont
Twitter @principaldumont   Website: http://bit.do/cultureofgrowth

PS.  Edmonton Mayor Don Ivenson spoke on this very topic a few days ago, talking about Edmonton becoming an Artificial Intelligence hub of Canada.

PSS.  Here is a list of the profession futurists believe to be in high demand in 2030 (imagine the possibilities):

• Computer Engineer/Coder/Computational Thinking
• Caregiving/ergonomics specialist/OT/PT/medical tech
• Energy technician/Energy manager
• Social Intelligence & New Media/marketing specialist
• Lifelong Learning/Teachers/Trainers
• Data Analyst/Management Analyst
• Web and Human Interface Designer
• Fitness and Nutrition Specialist
• Robotics Engineer
• Counsellor
• Content Creator